Identifying the Factors that Influence the Evacuation Decisions of Florida Tourists when Hurricanes Strike

(A pilot study funded by the Eric Friedheim Foundation)

Tourists are an under-studied population that is vulnerable when faced with natural disasters. Florida receives more hurricane landfalls than any other U.S. state, and is also one of the top three states for inbound tourism. This pilot study examines how tourists' evacuation decisions vary based on the content of the hurricane-warning messages they receive. It is hypothesized that the content of the risk communication has a strong impact on the tourists' evacuation decisions, and that given a risk-communication message, the hurricane knowledge and experience of the tourists affect the evacuation decision (after controlling for other tourist characteristics such as socio-economics, and travel behavior). The proposed research will employ novel techniques to address the clear lack of empirical data on the behavioral responses of tourists. The mode of data collection will focus on a group of tourists in Orlando and stated-preference surveys, which will be administered to tourists at several locations within Orlando and Tampa. These modes will elicit the behavioral intentions of tourists under scenarios that do and do not currently exist.

Modeling Evacuation Decisions of Tourists in Response to Hurricane Information
This study is the second phase of the pilot study above and will examine the ways tourists process risk-communication messages related to hurricanes. Airport-intercept surveys will be employed to target leisure travelers visiting Florida during the hurricane season. Questionnaires using a lap-top computer will be administered in major international airports in three coastal and one non-coastal destination in Florida. Survey questions will focus on risk-communication messages that include text, graphics, video or audio. An econometric-modeling approach will be used to analyze the data and to test the hypotheses. The study will yield significant information that can be used to improve risk-communication messages to tourists during hurricane emergencies and will ultimately provide data for policy formulation for local and state policy makers, emergency response service teams and tourism management agencies.